Two games where the home side's best edge runs into the exact thing the visitors do well. In Hiroshima, an inside-and-free-throw team meets the best three-point side in the East, and their perimeter defence is the weak half. In Busan, KCC's rebounding and free-throw numbers were built against small frontcourts, and Fubon bring the first frontcourt of equal size. Both games look like one- or two-possession finishes, not runaways.
Hiroshima vs Sendai. Hiroshima are 13-1 and win from the paint: 58% on twos over their last 10, about 24 free-throw attempts a game, and Kofi Cockburn on the offensive glass (12 offensive boards at Shimane). Dwayne Evans II draws the fouls. But they shoot only 31% from three and let opponents take about 33 threes a game at 34%. Their margins have been narrow even against weaker sides.
Sendai are the opposite. They take nearly 34 threes a game at 36.5% and held opponents to 28% from deep, and those numbers came against Alvark, Utsunomiya and the Sunrockers. Culver and El Darwich lead a shooting group that meets the defence that gives up the most volume. That three-point exchange is worth around nine points, more than Cockburn's rebounding edge. Sendai also foul little, so Evans' free-throw route shrinks, and both teams' cores played their last games in full.
Expect Hiroshima to start strong, with Sendai coming back in the third quarter, their best period. A one-rest-day road trip is real, but Sendai have won every game on that kind of short gap this season. That's why I'm siding with Sendai to keep this close or win it.
KCC vs Fubon. KCC's imports King and Long scored 62 and 68 in the two EASL games, and Heo Hoon is back to steady the ball. KCC turned it over 11 times with him and 20 without him. Their big edges, 48-27 on the boards against Macau and about 12 more free-throw attempts a game, came against small frontcourts.
Fubon are different inside. Todorovic had 30 points, 17 rebounds and 10 free-throw attempts against that same Macau side, Pickett added 11 boards, and Mbaye returns. Long picked up five fouls in his last game, and behind him KCC only have short backup minutes. KCC's zone also gives up 30-plus threes a game, and Fubon will take them. Both teams beat Macau by 14.
KCC should lead early while Fubon shake off five weeks without a game, but the middle quarters favour the deeper frontcourt. That's why I'm siding with Fubon to stay within reach.
