Two matches where the label on the home side is stronger than the numbers behind it. In both, the home team creates little, concedes a lot of quality, and is playing with a rebuilt defence. The visitors are not strong either, but they are the ones with the better measured edge.
Hamburg v Gladbach: Hamburg are outshot by roughly eleven to eighteen per game, their expected goals against sits near 1.8 and they have lost three in a row. Several defenders and midfielders are out, with Bornauw and Capaldo only possible returns. Gladbach are leaky too and short of forwards, but they create more than Hamburg, and the last three meetings were all goalless. The game should be cagey and low in clean chances. That is why I'm siding with Gladbach not losing, with a draw as a safety net.
Derby v Bolton: Derby score about 0.6 goals a game, have won once in fourteen and have no home win in seven. The same defenders have been missing for six straight games, so this is a settled, thin back line facing about 2.0 expected goals against per game. Bolton are missing two forwards and a midfielder, but the same absences were there when they scored in their last two games. Derby will likely sit deep, and an early Bolton goal tends to make their games collapse. That is why I'm siding with Bolton, again with a draw refunded.
