Two matches where the chance profile points somewhere the table does not. In both, the weaker attack or the leakier defence decides how things go.
Hamburg against Gladbach looks like a trade of chances, not a block-against-block game. Both sides allow close to two expected goals a game over their recent samples, Hamburg have conceded 2.2 a game over their last ten and Gladbach about 2.0, and over two and a half goals landed in 13 of 20 recent games for each. Hamburg's centre of defence is thin, with Vuskovic out and two more doubtful, while Gladbach lose a defender and have Diks and the keeper listed doubtful. These absence rows come from a feed seen a couple of days ago, so I read them as a role-level signal, not a confirmed team sheet. The three earlier goalless meetings were older squads and goal counts, not chance data. With both centres weakened I expect transitions and set pieces to open the game. That's why I'm siding with the goals in this match.
At Derby the home side has one win in 14 and no home win, scores about 0.6 a game over the last ten and loses its main creator and much of its defence. Bolton create a little more, 1.3 expected goals against Derby's 1.0, and are better on the road. Bolton have attacking absences of their own and lineups are not confirmed, but they only need to avoid defeat. That's why I'm siding with Bolton not losing.
