Two Japanese basketball games where the table and the margins say more than the headline form. In one, an unbeaten side keeps winning every quarter on average and by wide gaps. In the other, a home team's losing streak has a visible cause that stays on the road.
Gunma against the Diamond Dolphins: the Dolphins are 11-0 and every one of their recent wins came by ten or more, including 98-69 at Utsunomiya and 93-80 at Toyama. They win through ball pressure, with ten or more steals in most recent box scores, and they shoot about 48 percent from the field. Gunma is a slower, defence-first side that is good early but leaks in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins lead on average in all four quarters, so Gunma needs a slow game, few turnovers and cold Dolphins shooting. Lineup data is not published, so I am relying on the results, not on any absence. That is why I'm siding with the Dolphins to win by a clear margin.
Kyoto against Levanga Hokkaido: both are 8-5 and fifth, but Kyoto's point differential over 13 games is far better. Kyoto's three straight losses came on the road with heavy turnovers and a cold night from three, while at home they have scored 115, 90 and 81 and held opponents to the low 70s. Hokkaido scores efficiently and draws free throws, but concedes a lot and just allowed 118 and 123. A guard on Kyoto was reported out and is not confirmed, so that is the open question. The game should be close through the middle quarters and turn on the fourth, where Hokkaido scores a lot and Kyoto's free-throw shooting is weak. I'm backing Kyoto at home, because the streak looks like a road problem and the season margin favours them.
