Fiorentina against Juventus is a meeting of a leaky home side with an intact, in-form attack and a Juve team winning on far more finishing than creation. Juve's last two wins came from very few real chances, and the players who usually make those chances are missing. Fiorentina are rested and Juve arrive three days after a draining European trip. The game should tilt towards the home side after the hour.
Fiorentina under Vanoli live on volume and wide carriers. They have scored in nine of their last ten, with expected goals of 2.54 at Sassuolo, 2.11 against Como and 1.51 against Atalanta. Their problem is the back line. Pongracic, Ranieri and Parisi are out, and Viery and Dragusin have been giving the ball away in build-up. They have conceded first in each of their last five league games. Juve under Spalletti are compact and allow very few shots on target, but they beat Napoli and AZ on 0.79 and 0.57 expected goals, and they were outshot 18-9 in Alkmaar.
The matchup I like most is Njie against Kalulu, a centre-back pushed out to right-back. Njie scored and assisted at Sassuolo, and this is Fiorentina's cleanest one-on-one route. Juve's best route is pressing Viery and Dragusin and sending Kolo Muani through, which is exactly how Fiorentina gave up the openers at Sassuolo and against Atalanta.
The absences shape this. Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli and Conceicao were all missing from Juve's last two squads, and Cambiaso is now out too, with Woltemade short of his best. That leaves Juve relying on Kolo Muani and late runs from Koopmeiners. Fiorentina's front three are unchanged, and their bench of Goncalves, Beto and Gnonto has been making late goals.
I expect Juve to see slightly more of the ball early while Fiorentina press and counter. Even when Fiorentina have fallen behind, they have got level in three of their last five. With six days' rest against Juve's three, the last half-hour should belong to the home side. That's why I'm siding with Fiorentina.
