Two home sides who badly need points meet visitors with thin attacks and a lot of absences. In both matches the home team has the stronger chance profile, and in both the visitors' recent scoring comes from a narrow set of routes that look easier to shut down than the headline form suggests.
Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague: Slavia come in without Chory, Ouanda, Ogbu and Chaloupek, so both the front line and the wing-back slots are filled by depth players. They have scored once in their last three, and their coach has openly called scoring a huge problem and talked about low energy. At Sabah they actually created more than they allowed, but lost after their pressing faded early in the second half and a late keeper-forward gamble backfired. Fenerbahce's goals this season fall mostly between the 40th and 90th minute, which is exactly where Slavia have been conceding.
The key matchup is Fenerbahce's wide and half-space supply, with Greenwood, Aydin and Kahveci, against a patched Slavia back three and makeshift wing-backs. Fenerbahce are short of full-backs themselves and were punished in the heavy loss at Aston Villa, so Slavia's pressing is a real threat in the opening phase. I expect a closer first half, then Fenerbahce taking over after the restart as Slavia's legs go. That is why I'm siding with Fenerbahce to win.
Napoli v Bodo/Glimt: Napoli have the biggest chance edge in four of their last five games, with expected goals of 2.44 to 0.63 at Venezia and 3.12 to 1.01 against Frosinone, yet their results have lagged behind: a missed penalty, 12 blocked shots and a goalkeeper day against them. They sit on zero points at home in this competition and have every reason to push. Bodo's one comparable away test, at Bayern, produced just 3 shots and 0.30 expected goals.
Bodo are also without Mikkelsen and Evjen, with Blomberg hurt, so Helmersen leads a line that has lost its support. Napoli lose Neres and Alisson Santos on the wide forward spots and Buongiorno and Favasuli in defence, which gives Bodo a transition route, but De Bruyne, Politano, Lang, McTominay and the bench scorers are all available. The restart window is the moment to watch, since both sides have scored and conceded around it. I expect Napoli's volume to tell as the bench arrives, and that is why I'm backing Napoli to win.
