This derby turns on the state of the game more than on the names. Leverkusen will have the ball, and that is exactly the situation in which they have been beaten heavily this autumn. Koln, blunt when they must break down a block, are at their most dangerous when they can run into space. Add a short turnaround after a European night, and the shape of this match tilts away from the visitors.
Leverkusen under Martinez are a volume side, with lots of possession, shots and corners. When they lose, though, they lose the same way. Stuttgart had only 37% of the ball and won 4-2 in Leverkusen with big chances on the break, and Hoffenheim did the same with 42% and won 3-0. Both of those league games came less than three days after a midweek match, and this one follows Thursday's home European defeat to Marseille. Koln have had a full week.
The key matchup is Said El Mala and Maina running at Leverkusen's rest defence, with Doue missing at right-back. Koln have played without a fit striker for weeks, so their striker absences take little away from this route. Both runners played last weekend and are available.
The other half of the match is real: Leverkusen's corners and second balls against a Koln back line rebuilt without van den Berg, Hubers and Skhiri in front of it. That is how the visitors win, early and from a set piece. But their own forward group is thin, with Diaby, Tella, Terrier and Ben Seghir all out, and even 24 shots against Stuttgart produced only two goals.
I expect Leverkusen to dominate the first hour on the ball and Koln to wait for the break. The decisive window is around 60-75 minutes, when tired legs meet Koln's fresh bench. A draw is very much part of that picture, and a Koln goal on the counter is the other way it ends. That's why I'm siding with Koln not to lose at home.
