These are two matches where the home side's weak spot lines up with how the visitors like to play. At Pride Park, Derby are pushed into carrying the ball, which is exactly the mode where they cannot create, and they have lost more creators this week. In Seville, both goalkeepers have been letting in more than they should, and Alaves's late bench wave lands in the part of the game where Sevilla keep losing control. In both games the plan of the travelling side is the one with more evidence behind it.
Derby against Bolton. Derby have no home win in seven and four home goals in total. They managed first-half xG of 0.07 against Norwich and 0.37 against Stoke, and when they carried the ball against Stoke, ten of their 17 shots were blocked. Szmodics is now out after knee surgery, and Ozoh, Ward and Hedges are expected to miss as well. Bolton win away by giving up the ball: they had around 40 percent of it at Wolves, Southampton and Charlton, then broke through Dalby and Gale. Forino is back and won nine aerial duels at Charlton, which blunts Morris in the air. Zetterstrom's saves for Derby keep the game close, so a draw is very much in play. Still, I'm siding with Bolton not to lose this one.
Sevilla against Alaves. Sevilla have scored in every league game, and Alaves have conceded eleven in five away games. Sivera has saved only four of the 13 shots on target he faced in his last three league games. At the other end, Vlachodimos has saved seven of 15. Alaves's goals have come late from bench forwards in three of their last four league games: Mariano at Barcelona, Novoa at Celta and Mañas against Malaga. Sevilla conceded late from winning positions at Getafe and Levante. Quique says his whole squad apart from the long-term injuries is available. I'm siding with both of these teams finding the net.
