Derby's problems tracking deliveries and supporting runners meet Bolton's width and central receiving. Sevilla against Alaves has a different rhythm, with early recoveries giving way to a contest over crosses and the next ball. In both matches, the phase after the opening attack matters as much as who establishes territory first.
Bolton can connect Ito to Dalby while their wide players stretch Derby's defensive coverage. Norwich repeatedly found different receivers against that coverage, and Derby generated very little attacking relief in the opening half. Morris remains a direct outlet for the hosts, making Forino and Famewo's work against deliveries an important part of Bolton's structure.
Szmodics is now unavailable after surgery, following a restricted appearance against Norwich. Ito has been cleared after cramp, preserving a demonstrated connection to Dalby; Sheehan's fitness remains unresolved. Both sides have the same short recovery interval. I expect Bolton's wide supply to test Derby early, with their demonstrated option of adding a defender available later. I'm siding with Bolton's route to victory.
Sevilla can turn Fofana's recoveries and forward passes into chances for their runners, while Correia also provides a restart connection to Salas. Alaves bring a different source of chances through deliveries toward Boye and an additional box target. Novoa's involvement and the late receiving chances against Celta and Malaga show how that attack can develop after the interval.
Romero is back in Sevilla's squad following reported group training, with his exact workload unresolved. Bueno's suspension removes a later possession option, while Alaves' established absences have already been accommodated by the available attack. I expect the match to develop through Sevilla's initial pressure, Alaves adding receivers and the space created by those advances. That's why I'm backing goals in Sevilla against Alaves.
