Two Premier League games, one where a clear shot gap should show and one where two leaky, high-volume sides meet. At Selhurst Park the visitors out-create a thin, tired home side. At Sunderland both teams generate plenty of chances and neither defends them well.
Crystal Palace against Liverpool: Liverpool out-shoot opponents about 16.8 to 9.6 with a clear expected-goals edge, and Palace concede close to two expected goals a game with a thin defence that has been without Riad for all eight recent games. Palace played in Europe on Thursday and have a short week. Liverpool's own defence has leaked and they come off two defeats, so Palace can threaten on counters and set pieces, but the pressure should sit with Liverpool. That's why I'm siding with Liverpool to win.
Sunderland against Chelsea: Sunderland take about 15 shots a game and their expected goals are well above what they actually score, while they also give up chances at the back. Chelsea are missing their first-choice keeper and several defenders, which adds variance on crosses and long shots. Chelsea create too, outshooting Manchester United at Old Trafford. Sunderland also played in Europe on Thursday, so the second half should open up as Chelsea's rest advantage shows. Any route to three goals from either side works, which is why I'm leaning to goals in this one.
