The scoring in this match will be set by Osaka's attack, not by Chiba's pace. Osaka are the least efficient offence Chiba will see, and when these two met a few weeks ago at Chiba's speed the game still finished at 152 combined. Chiba's games often run high, but mostly because good attacks score 100+ against them, and Osaka are not a good attack. Chiba are also without their top shooter from that meeting.
Osaka have lost 13 in a row because they cannot score. Over their last ten they average about 68 points, hitting 39 percent on twos, 31 percent from three and 62 percent at the line. Only two of those ten games went above 73. Even with Palmer back for the last game and scoring 23, Osaka managed just 68.
Chiba live on three-point volume, firing 26 to 43 attempts a game. At home, though, their last six scores were 64 to 97 with nothing over 100, and the high totals mostly came on the road or against strong offences.
The key absence is Nate Williams, who scored 25 of Chiba's 87 in the last meeting, including six threes. He is on the injured list and already missed the last game. Watanabe is doubtful, but he also missed the earlier meeting, so the picture barely moves either way. Osaka get Gerun back from a long layoff and Chiba get Costello back, both first games in a while, so their impact is a question rather than a given.
I expect Chiba to lead from early on and settle somewhere around 88 to 98, with Osaka in their usual 65 to 74 range. Even the high end of both of those stays short of the mark.
That's why I'm on the low-scoring side of this one.
