Two matches where the side with the bigger chance volume faces an opponent short of attackers or midfield. Neither is a blowout, but the shot and chance numbers lean the same way in both.
Brighton v Brentford: Brighton average about 18 shots against Brentford's 14, and their chance difference over ten games is clearly better. At home they have scored 13 and conceded 1 in their recent league games. Brentford are missing their striker and several midfielders, and their defence gives up around 1.7 chance-quality per game. Brighton's absences are old and already inside their numbers. I'm siding with Brighton, with a draw covered since Brentford have drawn away often.
Koln v Leverkusen: Leverkusen shoot about 18.6 times a game against Koln's 13.9 allowed, with chance quality 2.2 for against Koln's 1.5 against. Koln have three forwards and their holding midfielder out, which leaves them reliant on counters and set pieces. Leverkusen have the short week after Thursday's European game, so I treat the edge as moderate. I'm siding with Leverkusen, with a level result refunded.
