Kawasaki wants its pressure to create quick scores, while Altiri has several outlets after the first guard is pushed back. That makes the next pass and the completed defensive rebound more important than the first steal. Shimane and Toyama present a different contest over fouls, extra shots and late scoring. Both games should be decided by how well each attack responds after its first action.
Davis gives Altiri a passing and rebounding outlet that was absent from its October loss to Kawasaki; he played 32 minutes and had seven assists in its latest game. Pardon can finish inside, and Sugimoto and Kurokawa can punish a defense pulled toward Newbill. Kawasaki forced 11 steals at Shiga but could not answer the late ball-screen and shooting run. Altiri's broader second action gives it the stronger closing route, so I'm siding with Altiri Chiba to win away.
Shimane has had a longer break and can attack through Okada, Dennis and Kay. Toyama answered this defense through Angola and Simms drawing fouls in the prior meeting, while Willis extended possessions; the same active core has also supported assisted road scoring. Shimane's recent fourth-quarter drops put a premium on its next score after a Toyama reply. Toyama's multiple ways to keep a possession alive support a competitive finish, so I'm siding with Toyama to stay close.
