Chinese Taipei look like the clear favourite on paper, but the way they win is narrower than the label suggests. Their big margins came against weak sides, and against strong pitching their bats have gone quiet. In a short tournament with little rest and unknown starters, a close game decided in the middle innings is the natural shape.
Taipei blew out weak opponents earlier this year, but was shut out by both South Korea and Japan and lost another game to Japan. Australia just beat Korea after a late burst against a tired bullpen. Their pitching gives up runs, so Taipei will score, but the lineup has not shown it can keep running up big totals against quality arms.
Both teams played on the same day and both bullpens may be stretched, so I expect the starters to leave around the fourth or fifth inning and the game to be decided between the fifth and eighth. That favours small margins either way.
That's why I'm siding with Australia to keep it within one run or win outright.
