This is a meeting of two upper-table sides whose records were built in very different ways. Alvark have been at their best at home, where they live at the free-throw line, while San-en NeoPhoenix have played every league game on the road and mostly beaten weaker teams by a handful of points. The talk around this match is all about Alvark's heavy loss at Sendai and their travel, and that is already well known. On the court, the measured difference sits in who gets to the line and who holds up in the fourth quarter.
In five home league games Alvark have drawn about 25 free throws a game and allowed under 15. In their three home wins they drew 30 or more. NeoPhoenix have allowed between 20 and 27 free throws in their road games, and their bigs pick up fouls: Vitto Brown and Terence Davis have both had four-foul nights recently. Three-point volume looks even on both sides, so the clearest difference is at the line, worth around four points before anyone misses.
The key matchup is Davis against Alvark's wings. He is NeoPhoenix's creator and he gets to the line himself, with a perfect twelve-for-twelve night at Ryukyu. If he keeps Hogg, Ando and Osakabe in foul trouble, Alvark's edge at the line shrinks. On the other side, Jarreau, Kerry Johnson and Hogg are the ones who draw the contact for Alvark.
On the lineups, Olbrich and Toews have been missing from Alvark's recent games, and NeoPhoenix have been without Yu Ryuhai and Tatsumi, so both teams should look like their last few games. Alvark had a day off at home after Sendai, so this game comes about three days after that loss, not the quick turnaround they had midweek.
I expect NeoPhoenix, who have had a full week of rest, to start well. They have been strong in first halves, and Alvark were very slow out of the gate at Sendai. The game should turn after the break. Alvark win the fourth quarter on average, NeoPhoenix lose it, and NeoPhoenix's wins have come by two to six points against teams below Alvark's level. Against Hiroshima and Ryukyu they won only once in three tries.
The fatigue story and one blowout have pushed Alvark into the underdog role at home. What I measured points the other way: the extra free throws at home and the late-game edge. That's why I'm siding with Alvark Tokyo to win this one at home.
