Both matches turn on whether one side's main route has an answer on the other side. Como's play between the lines meets a Lens back three patched together after two centre-back injuries. Al Taawon's counters meet an Al-Faisaly side that must win and has just lost its starting striker. In both games, the team that has to open up is the one more exposed.
Lens vs Como. Under Fabregas, Como keep the ball and play through Nico Paz between the lines, with Baturina, Da Cunha and Ramon arriving around him. That has kept producing chances without Kean, Diao and Rodriguez: four against Manchester United, and a comeback from a goal down at Torino with almost three-quarters of the ball. Lens are without Ganiou and Nawrocki, so Aguilar plays at centre-back next to a Todibo who is not fully fit. Since Edouard dropped out they have had no reference nine and created very little at Lille and against Paris FC.
Lens' best window is the opening spell, with the Bollaert crowd behind a press and Thauvin's deliveries. Como's thin squad and Inter at the weekend make the late phase the one to watch. Once Como settle possession, their route meets Lens' weakest unit. That's why I'm siding with Como, while still leaving room for a draw at a hard ground.
Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly. Al-Faisaly sit third and need the win, so they have to come forward against a side built to break. Their striker Al-Awadat and Ihsan Haddad are both out, and they have scored in neither of their last two matches. In the first leg their eighteen shots came mostly from range, and Taawon won in Amman through their bench.
Taawon have no fixture for two weeks, so there is no reason to rotate. Hamdallah is back as a finisher after scoring on the weekend. Their league struggles came against much stronger Saudi sides, while in this competition they have won twice and drawn once. Faisaly's corners are their real route, but the more they push, the more space Bajrami, El Bahraoui and Guiagon get to run into. I'm siding with Al Taawon at home.
