Two matches where the defences, not the attacks, decide the picture. Al Ahli score almost every week but keep conceding on the road, and they meet an Al-Sadd side that has to win at home. Sassuolo and Fiorentina both arrive with the defensive units that would need to hold freshly broken by suspension and injury. Neither game looks like one where only one side scores.
Al-Sadd v Al Ahli. Ahli have scored in 19 of their last 20, including the ten-man 1-6 at Shabab, so their attack holds up even without Toney. Their weakness is away from home: they conceded in all six recent away games, 14 goals in total, and Demiral is still missing. They also arrive three days after playing 68 minutes a man down.
Sadd have one point from three continental games, and both Lucescu and Barsham have said they must win. Sadd's attack runs through Afif and Firmino on the break, and that route earned them a goal at Qadsiah on a third of the ball. Both recent meetings in Doha ended with both sides scoring. I'm siding with goals at both ends.
Sassuolo v Fiorentina. Sassuolo's front three of Berardi, Esposito and Laurienté is intact at home, where they have scored in every game. They face a Fiorentina defence whose centre-back pair first played together days ago, with João Mário expected at left-back because Parisi and Ranieri are out.
Sassuolo's own screen is broken too. Thorstvedt is suspended, Koné and Boloca are out, and Aquilani admits the team has trouble staying compact. Fiorentina sit deeper away under Vanoli, but they still scored at Inter and at Genoa, and a home side whose coach is fighting for his job will not stay compact for long. Both sides look likely to find the net.
