PSG are missing four first-choice players, but the midfield that builds their margins is intact. Lyon have lost the players who actually produce their goals. In Saudi Arabia, Al Qadsiah and Al-Sadd are two possession sides whose defensive weak points are both open this week, and one of them is playing its third game in seven days.
PSG against Lyon. Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes are out, but Vitinha, Zaïre-Emery, Fabián Ruiz and João Neves are all available. Their replacement forwards are already scoring: Doué has a goal or assist in each of the last four matches. Lyon are without Sulc, Nakamura and Openda, the source of their recent goals, as well as left-back Tagliafico. Four days ago their build-up broke under pressure at Hoffenheim.
The key matchup is PSG's press against Lyon's first pass. Lyon's only real outlet is Nuamah running behind a reshaped PSG back line. PSG's chances have come mostly after half-time recently, and their bench is far deeper than Lyon's, so the game should tilt their way in the last half-hour. That's why I'm backing PSG to win this clearly.
Al Qadsiah against Al-Sadd. Qadsiah lost Nandez to injury early against Hilal, conceded nearly three expected goals in that match, and have let in eleven goals in their last six home games. Rodgers himself has spoken about fatigue. Al-Sadd's back line has allowed 17 to 22 shots against good opponents. Afif, Firmino, Claudinho and Giovani started together last time out, and with no points yet they will not play for a draw.
Qadsiah's runners should find space behind Al-Sadd's high line, while Al-Sadd's creators attack the gap in front of Qadsiah's centre-backs. As tired legs open the game after the hour, the goals should come at both ends. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
