Two matches where the shape is clearer than the names suggest. At Wrexham the gap sits in shots that matter, not just volume. In the Kuwait game the visitors dominate the ball but have struggled to turn it into goals in this competition.
Wrexham v Middlesbrough. Boro are top of the Championship and over their last ten they average about 20 shots with more than seven on target and roughly 2.3 expected goals, and their actual goals match that. Wrexham manage under three shots on target a game and about one expected goal, and they were shut out in their last two, at Sheffield United and Blackburn. Wrexham are missing Windass, Cacace and Broadhead, which hurts both their creativity and their left side at the back. Those absences were already there in the last two games, so the poor form is the current picture. Boro have also been winning without Jones. I expect Boro to hold the ball, pin Wrexham back and get repeated shots at a thin back line. That's why I'm siding with Middlesbrough to win.
Al Kuwait v Nasaf Qarshi. This is the return meeting a week after Kuwait won 1-0 away despite being outshot 18 to 10, thanks to one chance and a busy keeper. Nasaf pile up shots and possession but have scored only once in three games in this competition, while Kuwait come in with a longer rest and the home crowd. Nasaf need points, so they will push, which suits Kuwait's compact block and counters. No absence information is available for either side, so I am keeping this one modest. That's why I'm backing Al Kuwait at home, with the draw taken out of the picture.
