The scoreboard in this match looks set to be shaped more by Akita's broken defence than by Ibaraki's usual slow road game. Since losing frontcourt import Reed Travis, Akita have conceded more than a hundred points in each game. Ibaraki are a high-volume three-point team that has scored freely whenever it has met a defence like this. Akita's own scoring through Mark Smith has not dropped off, even on a losing run.
Akita have conceded 102 to Altiri, 123 at Levanga and 101 to Shinshu in their three games without Travis, with opponents making 14 or 15 threes every time. Ibaraki take 31 to 37 threes a game and put up 98 to 102 points against leaky defences. Their low-scoring road games came against slow, weaker offences, a very different opponent from a Smith-led Akita.
The main matchup is Ibaraki's spread shooters, Law, Maeda, Yoshii, Akama and Parks, against an Akita perimeter that has let opponents fire away. At the other end, Smith has scored between 23 and 37 in each of his last three games, and Akita have scored in the 80s or 90s in every recent home game. Soares's rim protection is Ibaraki's answer inside, but it does little against Smith's creation from the perimeter.
Travis is on the official injury list for weeks, and the replacement minutes inside have not stopped the bleeding. Ibaraki's full core played in their last game, and their ten-man rotation means the third game in five days should not slow them much.
Expect a quick start at Akita's pace, then Ibaraki's threes building a lead through the middle quarters, with Smith keeping Akita on the board late. Common opponents point the same way: games involving either team against Altiri and Levanga ran well into the 170s and 180s. That's why I'm siding with the over: both attacks should find their numbers.
