[26-27 NBA] Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans Analysis & Preview Tip-off: November 10 at 03:00 UTC
Golden State Warriors rely on heavy perimeter shooting to score, while New Orleans Pelicans have been making up for their 3-point deficit through inside scoring and free throws. With the visitors dealing with absences, whether their usual scoring routes hold up today will be key.
1. Game Overview and Team Form
Golden State Warriors have made 16.0 of 40.5 3-point attempts per game across their last 10 games. Draymond Green orchestrates the offense while Stephen Curry handles the scoring load. Against Miami Heat, Curry pulled away with 14 points in the third quarter after struggling with his shot in the first half. The East Bay Times reported that the Warriors successfully unlocked the opponent's zone defense in that game. While Curry's second-half scoring punch is a clear strength, 19 turnovers and 24 offensive rebounds allowed against Orlando Magic erased an early 16-point lead. Giving the ball away against an opponent that generates plenty of steals will make it hard to protect their perimeter edge.
Will Richard is out with a torn ligament in his left thumb (Yardbarker, Nov 9 local time). Having logged 12 minutes off the bench against Orlando, his playing time should be divided between Gui Santos and other bench pieces. Gary Payton II is questionable due to left knee inflammation. Coach Steve Kerr opened overtime against Orlando with his bench before putting Curry and Green back in (Heavy, Nov 8 local time). Coming off a rest day at home with no back-to-back tomorrow, Golden State do not face a schedule that requires resting their starters early.
New Orleans Pelicans travel after playing LA Clippers the previous night (NBA.com, Nov 8 local time). Trey Murphy III, Trendon Watford, and Yves Missi have all been ruled out (official NBA Injury Report, Nov 9 at 4:00 PM ET). Murphy provided perimeter scoring and heavy minutes, while losing Watford and Missi forces changes across their wing and frontcourt rotations. Missing Murphy against Utah Jazz, the Pelicans hit only 5 3-pointers, but Zion Williamson's second-half rim attacks and an edge at the free-throw line earned them an overtime win. Now there are reports that Williamson could also be rested. NBC Sports and Rotowire reported him out based on the 4:30 PM ET update of the NBA Injury Report, contrasting with reports by ClutchPoints on the same day. His availability drastically shifts the scoring outlook for the visitors.
2. Matchup Analysis
The first matchup pits the home team's perimeter offense against the visitors' perimeter defense. New Orleans Pelicans have allowed 39.0 3-point attempts per game, while Golden State Warriors have attempted 40.5 per game (Data Center). If Curry and Green keep feeding their shooters as usual, the Warriors will generate plenty of 3-point looks. Without Murphy and Watford, New Orleans must reconfigure their wing combinations to slow those attempts down. High volume does not guarantee high efficiency, though. When Golden State go through cold spells like the first quarter against Phoenix Suns, where they shot 2-of-15 from deep, their perimeter volume fails to translate into points.
The second battle centers on New Orleans' interior scoring and free throws against Golden State's turnover control. New Orleans Pelicans attempt just 28.0 3-pointers per game, compensating by getting to the line for 31.7 free throws per game. Golden State Warriors, by contrast, have held opponents to 23.8 free-throw attempts (Data Center). If Williamson sits, the Pelicans will struggle to replicate the massive free-throw advantage they enjoyed against Utah. If he plays, Green's defense and foul management become essential. The Pelicans average 11.2 steals per game, while Golden State commit 16.8 turnovers. If Golden State's second unit strings together giveaways while Curry rests, New Orleans can stay within striking distance through transition points even without outside shooting.
Second-half rotations also tie into both matchups. New Orleans must reallocate the minutes usually handled by Murphy and Watford to players who already logged heavy minutes yesterday. Over their last 10 games, Golden State Warriors are +2.7 in fourth-quarter point differential, compared to -5.0 for New Orleans Pelicans (Data Center). While that trend does not automatically dictate tired legs today, asking a shorthanded roster to maintain perimeter closeouts and interior pressure deep into the fourth quarter is a demanding task.
3. Prediction and Picks
We expect Golden State Warriors to win comfortably, powered by their perimeter attack and superior bench depth. New Orleans Pelicans typically offset their 3-point deficit via rim pressure and free throws, but with Murphy, Watford, and Missi out, alongside reports of Williamson potentially sitting, that path narrows considerably. The Pelicans may produce short scoring runs off steals. But if Golden State limit giveaways, New Orleans will struggle to make up for their lack of outside shooting in the half-court. Against the Clippers, the Pelicans still lost the fourth quarter 28-37 even with both Williamson and Murphy on the floor (Data Center).
We align with the market backing a home win. Golden State Warriors face an opponent that concedes their preferred 3-point volume, while New Orleans Pelicans are missing key personnel needed for perimeter defense and bench depth. Even considering the risk of Golden State squandering a big lead as they did against Orlando, New Orleans lack Missi to consistently challenge on the offensive glass. Turnovers remain the visitors' clearest path to staying competitive.
We anticipate a lower total. While the Warriors have strong perimeter scoring upside, New Orleans will struggle to match them from distance without Murphy. If Williamson sits as well, their ability to draw fouls inside drops sharply. Should Williamson play, New Orleans' free-throw generation returns and could push the game toward a higher total. But the disparity in fourth-quarter depth remains.
[Final Picks · Betman Reference] Moneyline: Golden State Warriors Win — The Pelicans rely heavily on free throws to offset their 3-point deficit, a path constrained by Golden State's disciplined foul prevention and the visitors' missing offensive focal points. Meanwhile, Golden State should generate their usual perimeter looks against a depleted wing defense. Handicap -8.5: Golden State Warriors Win — The visitors play the second night of a back-to-back with key scorers missing, and their fourth-quarter defensive lapses surfaced even when both focal points played. With Curry supported by deeper bench options, Golden State have enough firepower to sustain a 9-point or larger margin. Totals 232.5: Under — Even if Golden State score at a solid clip, New Orleans take few 3-pointers and will struggle to reach this mark with Murphy's perimeter shooting and rim pressure that generates free throws compromised.
