[2026–27 NBA] Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies preview and analysis Tip-off: November 10, 00:30 UTC
The Toronto Raptors create extra scoring chances by forcing turnovers, while the Memphis Grizzlies rely on rebounding and a high volume of three-point attempts. This matchup brings together two teams that find different ways to gain possessions.
1. Game overview and team form
All five of the Toronto Raptors’ wins this season have come against teams below .500. They have often turned opponents’ turnovers and fouls into points. Against the Milwaukee Bucks on November 7, Toronto forced 21 turnovers. With Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley out, Jamal Shead ran the offense and handed out 16 assists. Alijah Martin also scored 27 points, hitting six of his seven three-point attempts, though he had never scored more than nine points in an NBA game before that night. We cannot assume from one performance that he can keep replacing the scoring of two key players.
Barnes’ absence affects more than fourth-quarter scoring. It also changes Toronto’s rebounding and its coverage of the opposition’s primary ball-handler. If Quickley is out too, Shead is expected to run the pick-and-roll, with Martin likely to see more minutes. If Collin Murray-Boyles also misses the game, Kyle Anderson and Trayce Jackson-Davis are expected to take on more frontcourt minutes (Raptors Republic, November 9 local time). Barnes, Quickley and Murray-Boyles are all listed as questionable, with final decisions still pending (official NBA injury report, November 10 at 06:00 Korea time). Kawhi Leonard has already missed eight straight games, so he has not been part of the group that shaped this season’s results (TSN, November 8 local time).
The Memphis Grizzlies’ three-game losing streak after opening the season with six straight wins has exposed how opponents are punishing their turnovers. They gave up 21 points off 16 turnovers against the New Orleans Pelicans, and 12 first-half turnovers led to 16 points allowed against the Indiana Pacers. Against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis committed 18 turnovers and conceded 30 points (The Star, November 5 game report; TSN, November 7 game report). Since Scotty Pippen Jr. went out with a herniated lumbar disc, Ty Jerome and Cam Spencer have shared ball-handling duties. Pippen Jr.’s absence alone cannot explain the rise in turnovers, but there is no evidence that the current rotation has solved the problem.
With Isaiah Stewart out, the Grizzlies have been giving Cameron Boozer extended minutes at center. Coach Tuomas Iisalo said he uses Boozer as the hub of several set plays (Yahoo and Roundtable, November 7 local time). Zach Edey has played fewer than 21 minutes per game since returning (Raptors Republic, November 9 local time). Both teams had two days off after their November 7 games, so the schedule itself is unlikely to decide the matchup.
2. Matchup analysis
The key battle is Toronto’s active hands against Memphis’ ball-handling. The Raptors force 19.9 opponent turnovers per game and average 11.6 steals (DataCenter). If Barnes plays, a forward can take on the opposing handler. If he sits, more of the defensive burden falls on guards such as Shead and Ja'Kobe Walter. Memphis can respond by cutting down Jerome and Spencer’s time on the ball and running sets through Boozer. But given the repeated turnovers in their recent three losses, we see a greater chance that Toronto creates a gap in possessions from the first half.
The other major battle is on the glass. The Grizzlies average 48.6 rebounds per game, 5.8 more than their opponents, while the Raptors’ margin is 1.3 (DataCenter). Boozer and the wings also contribute on the boards when Edey rests. If Memphis gets second chances through offensive rebounds, that will narrow the possession edge Toronto creates by forcing turnovers. This battle matters even more if Barnes and Murray-Boyles are both out.
The teams’ scoring styles also play into the matchup. Memphis attempts 39.9 threes per game, while Toronto has not been effective at limiting opponents’ three-point attempts. The Raptors, in turn, get more of their points from drives and free throws. Both teams can generate extra chances, so the score may grow through transition points after turnovers, putbacks after rebounds and free throws more than through pace alone. If Memphis shoots as poorly from three as it did against Oklahoma City, making only 10 of 45 attempts, rebounding alone will not make up for the shortfall.
3. Final view and conclusion
We have no evidence that Memphis has fixed its turnover problems without Pippen Jr. We expect Toronto to turn those mistakes into transition points and free throws, while Memphis also scores through rebounding and threes, making this a high-scoring game overall. If Barnes plays, Toronto can also improve its coverage of ball-handlers and its ability to close out the fourth quarter.
The overseas market has lowered both the expected margin for Toronto and the total. The uncertainty around Toronto’s key players could explain that view. But their possible absences do not automatically reduce Memphis’ turnovers or the extra chances either team can create. The biggest difference between our view and the market is the scoring outlook. Toronto can take possessions away with steals, while Memphis can win them back on the glass, leaving both teams with clear ways to score.
Our outlook would change most if Barnes and Murray-Boyles are both out and Memphis makes threes at its season rate. In that case, Toronto’s rebounding defense and fourth-quarter offense would both weaken, giving Memphis a chance to close the gap. With the final status of all three players still undecided, how large Toronto’s advantage will be depends on the lineups announced just before the game.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman lines] Moneyline: Win. Without Pippen Jr., there is no reason to expect Memphis to cut down on turnovers against Toronto’s active hands. The Raptors’ guards create this possession edge whether or not Barnes plays. Handicap -2.5: Win. More than half of the turnovers Toronto forces come from steals, which can build the margin through transition points and free throws. Memphis’ route to closing the gap depends on Jerome scoring on his own late in the game. Total 230.5: Over. Both teams can create extra possessions in different ways, through steals and free throws for Toronto, and offensive rebounds and three-point attempts for Memphis. That makes a game with fewer scoring chances unlikely.
