[26-27 NBA] Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets Preview Tip-off: November 7, 22:00 UTC
In Mexico City, protecting the paint and managing the rotation will matter more than either team's usual home form. The starting point for the Indiana Pacers is whether they can keep Jokic's offense in check and secure defensive rebounds.
1. Game overview and team form
The Indiana Pacers are 3-6 this season. Tyrese Haliburton did not travel to Mexico City because of a hamstring injury (Yahoo Sports, November 7), while Timothy John McConnell is questionable (NBA official injury report, local November 7). Both players were already absent for games this season, so this is not a new loss today. Still, Andrew Nembhard will have to handle most of the ball-handling load against the Denver Nuggets' pressure.
Their recent win over the Memphis Grizzlies showed how effective that pressure can be. Indiana turned 12 first-half Memphis turnovers into 16 points (The Star, November 5). Coach Rick Carlisle used 12 players in that game and may go with a deep rotation again today (IndyCornrows, local November 6). But it is hard to expect the same results against Denver, with Jokic at the center of its passing game, as they got against a Memphis team that was careless with the ball.
Indiana's average of six fewer rebounds per game also matters (Data Center). Ivica Zubac played 19 minutes in his first game back from an ankle injury (IndyCornrows, local November 6), and his workload today has not been announced. While he rests, Jay Huff and the other forwards will have to deal with Jokic.
The Denver Nuggets score through Jokic's work around the rim and his passing, as well as 27.7 free-throw attempts per game (Data Center). When the Toronto Raptors guarded Jokic one-on-one, he attacked the paint. When they sent help, Cameron Johnson got open looks from three. Coach David Adelman also increased the pressure late in that game and forced turnovers (Denver Stiffs, local November 6). DeMar DeRozan was listed as likely to play, but his status was not confirmed (NBA.com, local November 6). If he plays, Denver will have another scoring option while Jokic rests.
2. Matchup analysis
The first matchup is Jokic against Indiana's interior defense. If Zubac takes Jokic one-on-one, the other defenders can stay with Denver's shooters. If Indiana sends help, it will have to account for both the shots created by Jokic's passes and the defensive rebounds. Indiana has played five of its nine games this season without Zubac, so its current rebounding deficit cannot be explained by his absence alone. If he plays extended minutes and helps on the boards today, Indiana can limit the damage inside. If his minutes are short, Denver will have more chances to go back to Jokic in the paint.
The second matchup is Nembhard's ball-handling against Denver's pressure in the second half. Indiana averages 15.6 turnovers per game, while Denver averages 10.7 steals (Data Center). Against Toronto, Denver turned steals early in the second half into fast-break points (Denver Stiffs, local November 6). If that pressure works when Nembhard sits and Braden Smith or Quenton Jackson handles the ball, the margin could grow quickly.
Indiana has ways to respond. Denver allows opponents 38.9 three-point attempts per game (Data Center). The Pacers can counter Denver's scoring at the rim and from the line if they convert their open looks from deep and avoid fouling while pressuring the ball. Portland's win over Denver featured plenty of made threes and fewer fouls in the second half. Indiana will not get the same result just by taking more threes.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Denver to build a lead with Jokic's inside scoring and free throws, then widen the gap by turning Indiana's turnovers into fast-break points with second-half pressure. Indiana should also score from the perimeter opportunities Denver allows and at the free-throw line, so we expect both teams to put up plenty of points. If DeRozan plays, Denver will have another scorer in the fourth quarter while Jokic rests.
The market gives Denver the edge, while appearing to account for Indiana's recent win and Zubac's return in the spread. But Memphis' 12 first-half turnovers played a major part in that win, and Zubac played only 19 minutes in his return. We do not have enough reason to expect Indiana to force that many turnovers against Denver or Zubac to protect the paint for long stretches. The game could stay closer than expected if Indiana makes more threes and cuts down on fouls.
[Final picks · by market · based on Betman lines] Moneyline: Loss. Indiana does not have enough size in the paint or enough rebounding to keep Denver's interior attack and free throws in check for 48 minutes. Handicap +6.5: Loss. Denver builds a lead in the third quarter with pressure and rebounding, then a bench featuring DeRozan back in the lineup protects the margin in the fourth. Total 229.5: Over. Denver's efficiency, free throws for both teams, and fast-break points off turnovers should all push the total higher.
