This match comes down to one weakness that keeps showing up in Tilburg: Willem II's defence. They have conceded in all eleven league games, and at home the leak has been worst against attacks no better than the one coming to visit. Zwolle's away record looks poor on paper, but it was built against back lines that are all sturdier than this one. The new coach and a sold-out stadium add energy, not structure.
The numbers behind the home side's problems are process numbers, not bad luck. Willem II allow around seven shots on target a game, their keeper is saving fewer than expected, and Excelsior and Nijmegen both scored three or more at their ground. Zwolle under van der Ree generate real shot volume, and the visitors' set pieces add a second route.
Going the other way, Willem II's attack has rarely produced two goals in a game this season, and Slory, one of their main outlets, is suspended. Even if they score early on the crowd's energy, holding a lead would mean a clean sheet this group has not managed once.
The flow I expect is a lively Willem II start, then Zwolle finding space once the first goal arrives. If the visitors score first, the home side have to open up, and that is when their worst results have come. That's why I'm siding with Zwolle to win away.
