Rio Ave against Braga is a possession side with a shooting problem against a bottom-three team whose back line has been stripped bare. Villarreal against Getafe is a nervous home side holding the ball against a block whose away attack has gone silent. In both, one side's chances are thin enough that the other's flaws matter less than they look.
Under Franclim Carvalho, Braga out-shoot everyone: Gent, Nacional, Famalicao and Aarhus all lost the shot count by a wide margin. In three of those four games Braga allowed half an xG or less. Their problem is conversion. They lost at Nacional after a long siege, and Carvalho himself says the job is turning production into goals. Rio Ave concede almost two expected goals a match and created very little at home against Sporting and Famalicao.
The Rio Ave back line is the key change. Ntoi is suspended after his red card, Abbey is injured and first-choice keeper Miszta is out, so a patched back four faces Braga's wide play through Victor Gomez, Horta and Pau Victor. The storm on the coast and Braga's Thursday trip to Denmark make a scrappy level game possible, but Rio Ave's own route is counters, dead balls and penalties, not sustained pressure. That's why I'm siding with Braga, protected against the draw.
At the Ceramica, Villarreal have the ball and Getafe sit in two banks of four. Villarreal have struggled to break blocks at home, losing to Espanyol and drawing with Elche, and Gerard Moreno is still out. Getafe's attack away from home has produced nothing in five league trips, with expected goals well under half a goal in the games I could check.
Getafe also come in after a Thursday European match, and Mayoral has been ruled out with illness, so Satriano and a sore Unal carry the front line with no fresh option. Their best hopes are a set piece for Dakonam or Djene, or a forced error in Villarreal's build-up. If Villarreal score, Getafe have little to answer with. If Villarreal stall, it stays tight at the other end too. That's why I'm siding with only one side, at most, finding the net.
