Two Nations League games with very different shapes. In the first, the table and an October scoreline hide how evenly the chances were shared. In the second, one side has the volume and the other has been leaking goals at a rate that rarely holds up.
Turkey have lost all four games, but those came against France, Italy and Belgium. Their numbers are better than their results: about 1.9 expected goals per game, 18.9 shots and 7.4 corners, with only about a goal a game to show for it. Belgium sit third but their process is ordinary, and the 3-0 in October came from roughly equal chances. Belgium have several doubtful players, including a ball-winning midfielder and a centre-back, though nothing is confirmed. Turkey should hold the ball at home and Belgium will counter. That's why I'm siding with Turkey not losing.
England against Croatia looks like a territory game. England score nearly three a game, keep over half the ball and created over six expected goals in the 7-0 last time. Croatia have conceded 16 in their last five and have had around a third of the ball in several recent games. England's doubtful players have named cover, so the attacking core stays intact. I expect England to score first and push the margin to two or more. That's why I'm siding with England to win by a clear margin.
