Two Nations League games that look very different. Turkey against Belgium sets two teams with creative midfields against defences that have been leaking chances all autumn. Albania against Finland puts a possession side that struggles to break down blocks against a home team happy to defend a draw. Both games come down to where the chances actually come from.
Turkey against Belgium. Turkey have no points from four games, but the numbers say they weren't outplayed: they matched or beat the opponent's expected goals in three of the four. In the reverse fixture they had 23 shots in Liege and still lost 3-0, with Lammens making eight saves. They lose because of finishing and because they concede in their own box, and they have conceded in every group game.
This time Guler, Calhanoglu and Kokcu are back in midfield, a clear upgrade on the side that lost in Liege, and new coach Sergen Yalcin has said his whole plan is built around winning, with a proper centre-forward. Belgium get De Bruyne, Tielemans and Doku back, and they face a Turkey defence without the suspended Bardakci. Belgium have allowed between 18 and 23 shots in every group game.
I expect Turkey to press high in front of their home crowd and Belgium to counter into the space behind. Belgium must win and Turkey have a new coach to impress, so neither side has a reason to sit back. That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends.
Albania against Finland. Finland keep plenty of the ball, but in their three games against sides of this level they created very little, two or three shots on target each time. This week they are also without Lod and Pyyhtia from midfield. Albania have a full squad, their back three with wing-backs and Berisha back in goal, and a draw suits them.
The reverse fixture finished with three goals, but Albania played most of it with ten men and both Finland goals were direct free kicks. That was a very different game. Set pieces are the likeliest source of a goal at either end, with Asllani's delivery for Albania and Walta's free kicks for Finland.
Expect a cagey, tight game in which Finland have the ball for long spells and Albania wait for a dead ball or a counter. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match.
