Two Nations League games where the results table tells a different story from the football. Turkey have no points, but the chances in their games have been close to even. Armenia have been winning games at home that their chance creation does not really support, and now they field a very young side. In both cases I'm reading the content of the games, not the scorelines.
Turkey against Belgium. Across four losses Turkey created 6.7 xG and conceded 6.5, and they were roughly level on chances in every single defeat. They had more of the ball, plenty of corners and more shots. What sank them was finishing at one end and Belgian transitions at the other. Belgium's own numbers are not dominant: under 0.7 xG in each game against France, and two clean sheets that leaned on 14 saves from Lammens.
The line-up is the change. The Turkish midfield that lost the first meeting was without Çalhanoğlu and Kökçü, and the probable XI brings both back alongside Güler and Barış Alper, with a real centre-forward to finish the crosses. Belgium lose Lavia to suspension and Lukaku is out. De Bruyne against a new Turkish centre-back pairing without Bardakcı is still their best route. At home, with that creative core back, I expect Turkey to have the ball and the volume, and I'm siding with Turkey not to lose.
Armenia against Cyprus. When these two met in October, Armenia had 67% of the ball and 16 shots but only 0.79 xG, and Cyprus won while sitting deep. Since then Armenia have lost their creative midfielder Spertsyan, and the coach says he will start eight under-23 players and nobody over 30. That takes quality out of an attack that was already struggling to create.
Cyprus only need a draw to clinch second place and play again three days later, so they have no reason to open the game. The likely flow is Armenian possession in front of a Cyprus block, with Edwards and Pittas picking their moments on the break. I'm siding with a low-scoring game in Yerevan.
