THY against Fenerbahce is a serving side meeting a reception that holds for a while and then breaks. Celta against Levante is a home favourite on its name that keeps the ball without hurting anyone, now without its striker. Both matches look closer on paper than the content says, but in opposite directions.
Fenerbahce are unbeaten and have dropped only three sets, attacking from both pins with Vargas opposite and Fedorovtseva and Baladin outside. They won without dropping a set at this same arena a week earlier. THY rely on Lazareva for points, and their reception has not held for a full match against a top server this season: at Vakifbank it stayed close for two sets and then collapsed.
The Fenerbahce setter is the one open question. Karasoy ran the offence in their last match and Orro was not on that list, which makes a tight finish less certain. THY's best route is one set, from a cold Fenerbahce opening or a close ending. A second set would need their reception to hold all match. That's why I'm siding with Fenerbahce, dropping one set at most.
At Balaidos, Celta's league season has been thin: about a goal a game and six draws in eleven. At home they were outshot heavily by Alaves and held goalless by Betis. Borja Iglesias is out, so there is no real number nine, and Starfelt and Alvaro Nunez are also missing from the back line. Celta played ninety minutes in Europe on Thursday, while Levante have had over a week to rest.
Levante sit deep and wait. Their away attack is weak, but they don't need much: Celta's possession against a low block has kept producing level scores, and Brugue and Ivan Romero can run at a reshuffled back three on the break, which Union SG exposed midweek. I expect a cagey first half and tiring Celta legs after the hour. That's why I'm siding with Levante not to lose.
