Belarus won the previous meeting by a wide score, but the chances behind it were much closer. San Marino found a response after conceding and later did so again against Albania. Belarus can still hurt it through wide delivery and a second ball. The key question is whether those attacks produce enough separate finishes for another wide margin.
Belarus has Pechenin and Kontsevoy to test San Marino's changed central defence. Cevoli is injured and Giacopetti suspended for San Marino, while Belarus is without Barkovsky and Shumansky after both played and contributed against Finland. Shumansky also supplied two goals in the earlier meeting, so his absence changes the finishing sequence Belarus must repeat. San Marino's immediate response in that match and Belarus's thinner away chance creation point toward a closer final score. That's why I'm siding with San Marino to keep the margin contained.
