Two games where the favourite's reputation is bigger than what its current group has shown on the floor. In Phoenix, the measured exchanges between the Suns and the Clippers come out close to even once threes, free throws and turnovers are set against each other. In Sacramento, an Orlando side without Suggs and Banchero has scored like a much smaller team than its name. Both games read as tighter than the prices suggest.
Phoenix vs the Clippers: the Suns win when Booker carries the half-court and their guards turn people over, and Orlando gave them 25 turnovers. But Phoenix's defence has allowed 38.5% on about 37 threes a game over its last ten and concedes around 29 free-throw attempts. The Clippers take about 36 threes at nearly 39%, and Garland lives at the line. Over a game that's worth roughly four points from deep and three from the stripe. Phoenix get most of that back on turnovers, but its steal rate is moderate, and the Clippers' giveaways stay in the low-to-mid teens against that kind of pressure.
The Clippers' absences aren't new. The same group lost by one to Miami, by seven to Toronto and then beat New Orleans, and Isaiah Jackson's return gives them another body on a glass where Phoenix have been losing badly. The 0-4 road record came against OKC, Minnesota, Golden State and the Lakers, which is a different level from this game. Phoenix are on the second night of a back-to-back after a heavy loss to San Antonio, and the third quarter, where their bench has been bleeding points, is where that should show. I'm siding with the Clippers to stay close.
Sacramento vs Orlando: the Kings leak points. They concede over 120 a game, with 14 threes and 30 free-throw attempts allowed, and their bench has given up the big second quarters. That is Orlando's route. But with Bane in and Suggs out, this Orlando lineup went 1-4, lost at home to Washington and scored 94 to 104 in four of those five games. Without Suggs their ball pressure has faded too: they force only about 14 turnovers a game while committing 18.
Acuff is the engine for Sacramento. He had 32 points and 10 assists against Miami, a game the Kings lost by only six without Sabonis. Orlando's loose handling gives him and LaVine transition chances. Orlando's three-point volume and free-throw drawing are real, but its own turnovers cancel a good part of them, and the gap I get is a handful of points, not a comfortable road win. I'm siding with Sacramento to keep it close at home, whether or not Sabonis plays.
