Phoenix can get moving through Booker, but its next scorer and the finish to each defensive possession have shaped its recent games. The Clippers have shown several ways to answer an early run, making the middle quarters important. Portland can create through Lillard and Avdija and add Clingan at the rim. Against Oklahoma City, its first pass and the rebound after each initial stop will matter as much as its outside shooting.
Booker scored heavily against San Antonio, while Green and Brooks supplied much less in that game. Garland brought scoring and passing against New Orleans, and Lopez, Hachimura and Dunn gave the Clippers other finishes after the first action. Phoenix played that last game without Williams in the middle; the Clippers' current absences were already in place during their strong New Orleans response. Phoenix can start quickly, but Garland's next pass or foul trip gives Los Angeles a way to answer through the second quarter and late possessions. That's why I'm siding with the Clippers to stay close.
Lillard and Avdija can move Portland's first defender, and Clingan plus the returning Robert Williams can contest the glass. Williams played a short stint against the Lakers before resting against San Antonio; Portland's other listed absentees did not play its last game. Oklahoma City is also missing established rotation players, but Gilgeous-Alexander's paint and foul pressure has been joined by Mitchell and McCain scoring, with Hartenstein and Mara finishing possessions inside. Portland gave the Lakers live-ball chances and extra rebounds despite making outside shots, then had another difficult opening and rebound game against San Antonio. I expect Oklahoma City to find separate answers to a Portland run, so I'm siding with the Thunder to finish ahead.
