Montenegro have the clearer route to territory and box entries. Latvia showed in the first meeting that they can still find a late attacking connection. Montenegro's recent wins have been close, despite stretches of control. The key is whether their next wave of possession produces another clean finish or gives Latvia a way out.
Adžić and the Montenegro forwards will test Latvia's central cover, and their earlier meeting showed how dangerous that can be. Latvia's own route runs through a recovered second ball and a pass to the wide or central receiver; their late goal in Riga came from that kind of renewed supply. Montenegro's coach has ruled Marušić out and says Jovetić is uncertain, while Latvia have called up Ikaunieks after he missed the previous games. I expect Montenegro to lead the territorial battle but Latvia to keep finding enough forward movement to answer. That's why I'm siding with Latvia to stay close.
