Montenegro's best attacks come from wide supply into central forwards and arriving midfielders. Latvia can defend with five and still advance through a supporting receiver behind the striker. The contest turns on how often those attacks become clear finishing positions rather than possession around the box.
Riga showed Montenegro finding Adzic through a delivery and later scoring from a right-sided attack and rebound. It also showed Latvia reaching the box and scoring late through Strods. Montenegro's subsequent match against Armenia produced much less penetration against a compact defence.
Marusic is absent and Jovetic's involvement remains uncertain, while Haksabanovic is reported to start. Latvia's clearer additional attacking role is Ikaunieks between the lines; Gutkovskis and Uldrikis already played in October. The latest Cyprus defeat also came without two defenders who had started in Riga.
I expect Montenegro to probe outside Latvia's block and Latvia to use Ikaunieks to connect its exits. That receiving role gives the visitors a way to make the match competitive beyond simply defending their area. That's why I'm siding with Latvia to stay close.
