Montenegro can control territory without turning every spell into a clean finish. Latvia have a compact shape and a direct outlet that can move the ball beyond the first press. The key stretch is the next attack after the opening goal, when both teams must find another useful box contact.
Montenegro's width can bring Adžić, Krstović or Osmajić into the area, and Latvia's reshuffled central defence will have to win those first deliveries. But Montenegro's home possession against Armenia produced few clear finishes, while its previous meeting with Latvia also showed Latvia could shoot after falling behind. Ikaunieks gives Latvia a between-lines receiver, with Gutkovskis available as a direct target and a second runner arriving beyond him.
Jovetić played a substantial part in the previous meeting and his current role is unsettled. Latvia's response route is clearer with Ikaunieks involved, and a blocked Montenegro attempt can end in a Latvian outlet rather than another home finish. That's why I'm siding with Latvia to stay close through the full match.
