Two basketball games where the market leans on home court and table position more than the actual scoring picture. In the first, both teams sit at the bottom of the standings and the gap is in points, not in names. In the second, a heavy favourite is being asked to win by a big margin in a setting where its biggest wins have mostly come elsewhere.
Mobis against Goyang in the KBL: Mobis is 10th at 3-9 and scores about 83 while giving up about 89. Goyang is 9th at 4-9, scores nearly 90 and gives up about 91, so its point difference is roughly four points per game better. Goyang's recent losses were one-possession games (107-109, 96-103, 102-105, 85-86), while Mobis has been blown out, including 67-94 and 71-91. Goyang also won the last three meetings, including 95-82 at Mobis on 10-16. Goyang lives on three-point volume and finishes quarters better, with its strongest scoring in the fourth. The KBL gives no lineup data, so I treat this as a modest read on the scoring gap. That's why I'm siding with Goyang to stay within reach or win.
Mikawa against Shinshu in the B.League: Mikawa is third at 9-3 and shoots very well from three, but its large margins came on the road against weak sides, such as 101-57 and 76-57 at Osaka and 99-56 at Toyama. At home it is far less dominant and it lost 83-90 to Gunma on 11-06. Its turnovers run higher at home than away, and the rebounding battle looks even, with Shinshu a strong rebounding side. Shinshu has won four straight and as a visitor has usually stayed within about ten points. Lineups are not published, so I keep this to the margin question. That's why I'm siding with Shinshu to keep the game within the spread.
The two picks come from different leagues and different reasons: one is about a scoring gap and head-to-head record, the other about a home margin that is smaller than the table suggests.
