Both of these matches come down to one team's strength meeting a gap the other team has this week. At Old Trafford, a United side built on possession is missing the midfield and centre-back pieces that protect it when they lose the ball. Villa are built to punish exactly that. At San Siro, two possession teams with full creative units meet, and only one of them can have the ball.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa. United will have the ball. They had 63% at home to Bournemouth, Carrick says they are desperate to win, and as 18th-placed hosts they can't sit back. The trouble is how they concede when they have it. Bournemouth won 0-3 at Old Trafford through a turnover, a set piece and Lammens off his line. Chelsea's first goal came from Mbeumo losing the ball in midfield. This week Baleba is out with a hamstring injury, Ugarte is out and Lisandro Martinez is suspended, so the screen and the centre-back pair are both patched.
Villa are happy without the ball. They beat City with 37% possession, eight shots and two goals, McGinn winning it back and Jackson finishing, and they scored the same way against Fulham and at Newcastle. Jackson running at Yoro, Maguire or Heaven is the matchup I keep coming back to. United have a real route of their own, with Cunha attacking a Villa right side that has lost Cash to suspension, and Bruno's set pieces. A 1-1 feels like the natural resting point. United's Roma comeback came in the Champions League against a side sitting deep, with Baleba still playing, and they have one league win in nine. That's why I'm siding with Villa not losing.
Inter vs Como. Inter have scored in all of their last ten, through Calhanoglu's deliveries, the wing-backs and Thuram, who faces Como's second-choice centre-back pair with Chalobah out. Their back line leaks from wide balls and set pieces, though: Milan scored three in the derby from very little. Como's goals come from Paz, Da Cunha and Baturina rather than a striker. All three are fit, and they have done the scoring since Kean went out in October. Como scored at San Siro last season, and three of the four meetings had goals at both ends.
Whoever gives up the ball gets to run at a high line. If Inter go ahead, Como have to push higher and leave room for Thuram. If Como go ahead, Inter throw the wing-backs forward. Either way, both sides have a road to goal, so I'm backing goals at both ends.
