This is an open, leaky match between two sides that cannot control the ball for long. Possession is almost even, both defences give up chances, and the result is more likely to be decided by who finishes than by who has territory. Lens are the home name, but their recent run says their back line is under real stress.
Lens have conceded 24 goals in their last ten and kept a clean sheet in only two of their last twenty. They come off a heavy home defeat to Como, a 0-1 loss at Lille and a 0-3 at Brugge before that. Two centre-backs and both main forwards are listed as doubtful, though those are squad listings rather than confirmed team news. Marseille sit higher in the table with a better goal difference and a recent run of four wins in five, including a 1-0 win away at Leverkusen.
The key matchup is Marseille's forward line against a Lens defence that has been stretched all season. Lens win more corners, so set pieces are their best route, but their finishing has been thin lately. Marseille played in Germany on Thursday and have a little less rest, which matters mostly late in the game.
I expect an open game with chances at both ends. Lens will want a reaction at Bollaert, but a team that keeps conceding and may be short of forwards is hard to trust to win. That's why I'm siding with Marseille, with the draw giving the stake back.
