These two matches are opposite in tempo but read the same way: the shape of each game matters more than the table. Le Havre have been creating chances and losing on finishing and goalkeeping, and now they meet one of the quietest attacks in the league. In Madrid, Barcelona's possession machine arrives without its screen in midfield, against an Atletico side that contests games rather than parking the bus.
Le Havre vs Lorient. Le Havre are winless, but their recent league games against PSG, Marseille and Auxerre produced five, seven and six shots on target. The losses came from missed chances and a Bodart error against PSG, not from a lack of attack. Lorient are a low-event side. They won their two home games 1-0 on very few chances and had zero and one shots on target in their last two. Their goals have come from a penalty and late subs. Lorient's danger is real: their wing-backs run at a makeshift Le Havre back four missing Jelert, Pembele, Zagadou and the suspended Seko, and Mvogo has been excellent in goal. Even so, those runs only turn into goals if Lorient's thin creation produces first. Their games tend to sit at 0-0 at the break, which keeps a draw very much in play. That's why I'm siding with Le Havre not losing.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Barca will have the ball, as they do against everyone, and they have scored in nineteen of their last twenty. Atletico have been letting through fifteen to twenty shots a game, leaning on Oblak. The twist is at the back for Barca. Rodri went off with a hamstring injury and is out, Koundé is out, and Eric Garcia and Christensen are only just back. That leaves the high line protecting itself, the same picture as the Real Madrid counter goal past Cubarsi. Julian Alvarez running into that space, with Lookman and Sorloth coming off Simeone's bench, gives Atletico their road. They scored in all three home meetings with Flick last season.
If Barca score first, Atletico have to come out. If Atletico score first, Barca push even more men forward. Both states keep both goals alive, so I'm backing goals at both ends.
