Both of these Japanese games look like a strong favourite against a side that is weaker but not hopeless, and in both the question is the size of the gap rather than the winner. The favourites win more often, but their margins are less stable than their reputations suggest.
Kobe against Tokyo Sunrockers: Tokyo is 10-5 and wins through rebounding and free throws, but it gives the ball away a lot, with 18 or 19 turnovers in three of its last nine. Its margins in those nine games run +5, -8, +7, -11, +24, +7, +43, +32, -2. The median is only +7, and the three big wins came against bottom-table sides. Kobe is a poor shooting team, but only two of its last ten losses were by 12 or more, and its median loss is about nine. Lineups are not published, so I am not leaning on any absence. I expect Tokyo to be ahead for most of the game, but a double-digit finish is not stable, and that's why I'm siding with Kobe getting the points.
Mikawa against Shinshu: Mikawa is third at 9-3 and shoots 43 percent from three, a rate that usually comes back down. Its large margins came on the road against the weakest teams. In its four home games the margins were +5, -7, +6 and +17, an average of about +5, with three of the four decided by fewer than 10. Shinshu has won its last four, is conceding about 87 a game, and has the free-throw shooting to stay close. Mikawa's turnovers in a home loss to Gunma show how it gives ground. That's why I'm siding with Shinshu getting the points.
Both picks rest on the same idea: the spread is asking more than the recent margins have delivered, so I am keeping the stake small.
