Two sides who both want the ball meet at San Siro, so the first question is who actually gets it. Como's long run of control was built against mid-table and lower Serie A sides, and this is a much stronger opponent on its own ground. Inter's home record and their habit of winning games late are measured over the whole season. If the game is still level after an hour, the benches look very different.
Inter under Chivu play a 3-5-2 with lots of shots and vertical wing-back play, and they finish games strongly: twelve of their league goals came in the final half-hour, and they have taken thirteen points from losing positions. At home they have won all five league games and scored seventeen. Como under Fabregas keep the ball, find Nico Paz between the lines and switch play for cut-backs, and they concede very little because the other team rarely has the ball. Their five-game winning run came against Sassuolo, Torino, Venezia and open European opponents, and before that they stalled against teams who pressed them man to man.
The key battles: Paz and Da Cunha against Inter's midfield is Como's one proven chance route. Inter's wing-backs and Calhanoglu's set pieces go against a stand-in Como centre-back pair, because Chalobah is out. Thuram has scored four times in three games against Como.
The team news matters here. Bastoni is reported back at left centre-back, and that is exactly the spot where Inter leaked in the derby with a stand-in. Stones and Jones are back on the bench. Lautaro is out, which is a real question about finishing, but Inter still create plenty without him. Como have left out every forward except Douvikas, so they have no attacking option from the bench, and they had a day less to recover after their trip to Lens.
I expect a contested first half, with Como's best spell in the first half-hour if Paz finds space behind an Inter wing-back. After that, Inter's deeper bench and late-game pattern should tell against a Como side that cannot freshen up its attack. If Como score first, their way of holding a lead is keeping the ball, which is much harder against Inter at home than against Venezia.
That's why I'm backing Inter to win this one.
