Both matches have one side that creates far more than it allows, and a defence under strain on the other end. Hoffenheim bring volume against a depleted Schalke, and Fiorentina's open style meets a patched-up back line of their own.
Hoffenheim against Schalke: Hoffenheim average about seventeen shots a game with chance quality well above Schalke's, while Schalke create little and have conceded heavily on chance quality; Leipzig out-shot them eighteen to six. Schalke are reported to be missing their striker, a wing-back and a centre-back, though that comes from one source that I could not double-check. Hoffenheim won twice at home by three goals in recent weeks. The risk is a set-piece goal against them, since their own defence is thin, but I expect Hoffenheim to dominate territory and Schalke to sit deep until a goal forces them out. That's why I'm siding with Hoffenheim to win by a clear margin.
Fiorentina against Juventus: Fiorentina play open games, about seventeen shots a game, and nine of their last ten finished with three or more goals. They have three defenders out since early in the month, and the same group missed their previous game, so the thin back line is current. Juventus defend tighter, but they are three days past a European trip and may rotate. I expect Fiorentina to push for the first goal and the game to open up from there. That's why I'm siding with goals in this match.
