The derby label suggests caution, but the way these two teams actually play points to an open game. Both attacks are aimed at a weakness the other side has already shown, and neither club wants a draw. Gamba's recent draws were wild games, not tight ones.
Gamba under Myojin have moved to a 4-3-3 with Usami as an inside half, and they create a lot: around fifteen shots and six on target a game, including 21 shots away at the then-leaders Machida. Their problem is holding leads and defending crosses late. Pohang and Kyoto both equalised in the final minutes. Their draw run includes 3-3 and two 2-2s.
Cerezo are eight league games without a win. Their own club preview admits they have been losing control early, conceding first, and conceding from set pieces and long-range shots. They lost 4-1 at Kashima on the way here. Their attack is a crossing team built around Lucas Fernandes's delivery to Sakuragawa and Sabbag, and they create most when chasing.
The key matchups line up neatly. Usami's set pieces and shooting from range go straight at Cerezo's admitted leak, and Gamba's wingers get the space behind Cerezo's wing-backs. At the other end, Cerezo's crosses go at Gamba's late-game weakness, though veteran keeper Higashiguchi is strong on high balls.
Usami, Nakatani and Mito were rested from the midweek trip to Pohang, so Gamba's main creator is fresh. Gamba's listed doubts are long-term absentees who were already missing from recent games.
Both sets of players have said a draw is not enough, so whoever falls behind keeps coming. I expect Gamba to score first and the game to stay open late. That's why I'm siding with goals in this derby.
