Tokyo's recent attack has combined pressure after losing possession with several different receiving options. Kashima can escape through Suzuki and send runners beyond that pressure, making the first clean forward pass an important contest. Tokyo also have recovery defending behind the initial press, giving this match several distinct phases.
Nakagawa attacks loose balls, Nagakura links play and Gómez offers a later run behind. Ishihara and Nagano have supplied goals through different patterns, so Tokyo can vary the next attack after an initial move ends. Their established central protection has also limited opponents' chances beyond the headline clean sheets.
Tokyo's continuing absences are already reflected in the Ishihara–Bangnagande and Scholz–Inamura unit. Homma and Hashimoto made brief substitute returns, while Kashima rested or lightly used several league regulars in Thailand. I expect a contested opening and repeated Tokyo attacks, followed by fresh receiving options after the interval. That combination is why I'm siding with FC Tokyo to win.