England's attack can ask defenders to track several receiving positions in the same move. Croatia's strongest recent passages came from a compact midfield and well-timed regains, with less attacking output after the interval. Italy and France present a different contest, built around French pressure and Italian attempts to escape through midfield and the right side.
Kane dropping, Bellingham arriving and Gordon running beyond remain England's clearest attacking relationships. Saka's absence changes the right-sided combinations, but the October meeting also contained sustained creation through the centre and left. Croatia lose Jakic, Sutalo and Perisic from the side that faced Spain, while Rice returns as an available midfield option for England. I expect England to find repeated box entries against those changed assignments. That's why I'm siding with England to create a clear winning margin.
France retain Olise, Cherki and Doue as creative options, but their central attacking roles have changed with Dembele and Lepaul unavailable. Italy's expected back four offers continuity against that possession structure. In the previous meeting, Italy reached close shooting positions despite having much less of the ball.
Kean's absence changes Italy's outlet, with Pio Esposito and midfield arrivals forming part of the expected response. Frattesi and Kayode give Italy a route down the right, supported by Tonali and Barella. I expect those escapes and the retained defensive structure to keep Italy involved throughout. That's why I'm siding with Italy to avoid defeat.
