England's first-pass protection and recycled clearances can put several different runners into Croatia's box. Croatia's direct response begins with Kovačić or Modrić finding Matanović before England resets. Belarus should spend more time in San Marino's half, with Pechenin supplying from the left. San Marino's task is to turn a first defensive recovery into a genuine reply, as it managed against Albania.
Rice's return supports England's buildup, and Bellingham, Gordon and Kane give it central, wide and close-range finishes. Croatia pressed Spain well early, but Perišić, Jakić and Šutalo are now unavailable after playing roles in that last match. That reduces both its left-side exit and its midfield cover while England can attack the next clearance. I expect England to find a second distinct box receiver after the first breakthrough. That's why I'm siding with England to pull clear.
Pechenin made three assists in Belarus's October win, yet four goals from five shots on target was an unusually efficient finish. Shumansky and Barkovskiy played against Finland and are suspended for this match, removing a recent direct first-contact route. San Marino have Nanni in the squad, and Capicchioni's pass to Lazzari gave them a reply against Albania. I expect Belarus to have the ball, with San Marino's outlet and the changed Belarus receiving group keeping the gap contained. That's why I'm siding with San Marino to stay close.
