Two Nations League games where one side's absences hit the other side's strongest area. Croatia arrive at Wembley without their main goal threat or their first-choice centre-backs, while England keep the attackers who decided the October meeting. In Milan, France keep almost every player who has been producing their shots, and Italy lose the striker who gave them their best chances in the first meeting. Both matches look like repeats of October, with the gaps a little wider.
England against Croatia. England won all three of their group games by two goals or more and allowed just two, one and zero shots on target in them. Croatia's best recent attacking game came against Spain, built on Modric and Kovacic winning the ball in midfield and going quickly to the front line. But Perisic, who scored that goal and had the next big chance, is suspended, and Kramaric, Ivanovic and Luka Sucic are all out. That leaves the route to Matanovic and Vlasic.
The bigger issue for Croatia is at the back. Sutalo and Pongracic are injured and Jakic is missing in front of them, so a back line whose errors gave away goals in the 7-0 now has a 19-year-old in the middle. England have problems of their own, with Guehi, Konsa and Stones missing and Saka out, but Kane, Bellingham and Gordon remain and Rice returns to anchor midfield.
Expect England to have most of the ball, with Croatia pressing hard early. Against Czechia, England were two up at half-time and only started managing the game once they were three clear. That's why I'm backing England to win comfortably, by two or more.
Italy against France. In October, France had eight shots on target to Italy's two and still only drew 1-1, mainly because Donnarumma made seven saves. The players who made France's shots and scored their goals over the last three games, Olise, Cherki, Doue, Barcola, Camavinga and Rabiot, are all still available. Mbappe and Dembele are missing, but between them they made only a small share of those chances.
On Italy's side, Kean is out. He was their real box threat in October, with a big chance, a shot off the woodwork and a goal ruled out, and his replacement had no shots in an hour against this France. France's centre-backs Upamecano and Jacquet, who kept Italy to two shots on target, are paired again. Italy's best way to score is still pressing France's build-up, which is how they equalised last time.
France should keep the ball and wear down Italy's block, with their goals more likely after the break. A draw is enough for them, so a level game late on is a real possibility. That's why I'm siding with France, but in a way that gives the stake back if it ends level.
