Three NBA games where the weaker side is carrying clear, named problems. In each one the market's question is how much of the trouble shows up on the floor, and the structure points the same way.
Dallas hosts Brooklyn. Dallas sits at a positive point differential while Brooklyn is deep in the red, losing seven of nine and conceding almost 32 points in the second quarter on average. Brooklyn also played at Atlanta the night before and are missing two rookie guards, Demin and Brown Jr., so ball handling and bench depth are thin. Dallas has been without Lively for over a week and still beat Utah comfortably, with Gafford and Johnson covering the glass and Flagg and Irving creating. That's why I'm siding with Dallas to win.
Los Angeles Clippers against New Orleans is the closest of the three. The Clippers have lost seven of eight, mostly by wide margins, and now list backup bigs Jackson and Niederhauser as out, leaving Lopez as the only true big. New Orleans scores around 120 a game and has a positive margin, even though they give up plenty themselves and Missi is out. The Clippers need a hot three-point night to turn it around. I'm leaning to the Pelicans here, on a smaller scale.
Sacramento hosts Miami. The Kings have won once in nine, concede about 123 a game, and lost both recent home games by double digits; Murray's ankle is a further question. Miami has had a bumpy road trip, but it only needs something close to its normal scoring against that defence, and it has an extra day of rest. I'm backing Miami to win outright.
