Spain should control long stretches of possession and keep the Czech block under pressure. Czechia's task is to end the second attacking phase, then retain an outlet for Hlozek. The previous meeting showed both Spain's ability to keep arriving and a Czech route out after a regain. Its late goal sequence also had the added effect of a sending-off.
Spain's earlier opening move ran through Yamal and Olmo, with Rodri reaching another ball; those same creators and finishers are unavailable for this match. Pedri, Fermin, Merino and the wide replacements can still circulate and arrive in the box, so Krejci's return and Czech midfield cover matter on each first clearance.
Hlozek's connection to Slama gives Czechia a way to carry the ball beyond Spain's first press. The Czech block should spend much of this match defending, but it can make Spain rebuild attacks instead of granting a clean second shot immediately. That's why I'm siding with Czechia to keep the result close.
