Spain and England have both shown they can pile up box entries against these opponents. Their earlier wins also contained match events that shaped the final scores. Czechia and Croatia have to manage the first press and find a clean outlet into the middle. The distance between sustained pressure and repeated close finishes is central to both games.
Spain's wide circulation should press Czechia back, with Merino still capable of arriving late in the box. Yet the Yamal and Olmo combination that opened the previous meeting is unavailable, and Krejčí returns to help Czechia defend the second contact. Hložek and the midfield runners give the home side an outlet when Spain's attack is stopped. That's why I'm siding with Czechia to stay in the contest.
England can create through Bellingham, Kane and its wide runners, as the previous meeting showed. Croatia responded in its next match by finding a goal through midfield recovery and limiting Spain's close chances. Perišić is suspended and England's Saka is injured, so both teams have changed final-third roles; England also have replacements to settle in defence. Modrić and Kovačić can give Croatia a controlled first pass before its forwards receive. That's why I'm siding with Croatia to keep the score close.
